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The new article “Uncertainty Quantification in the Techno-economic Analysis of Emission Reduction Technologies: A Tutorial Case Study on CO₂ Mineralization” highlights the importance of utilising ex-ante system analysis tools, such as Techno-Economic Assessments (TEAs), which assume a vital role in guiding decision-makers.

As society progresses towards a sustainable future with the ambitious goal of achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions, it becomes increasingly crucial to establish a solid scientific foundation for our chosen pathways.

Nevertheless, the complex nature of CO₂ mitigation technologies brings forth inherent uncertainties that must be addressed to ensure the meaningful interpretation and effective communication of TEAs outputs. To shed light on this critical aspect, the study focuses on multiple uncertainty analysis methods for ex-ante TEAs within the context of CO₂ mineralisation in the cement industry.

The findings of this study challenge the prevailing notion that local sensitivity analysis tools, like one-way analysis, do not suffice for drawing reliable conclusions. The study emphasises the necessity of embracing global sensitivity analysis methods, such as variance-based indicators, to enhance the accuracy and robustness of TEAs in this specific field.

By incorporating these advanced uncertainty analysis techniques, valuable insights can be revealed, enabling informed decision-making and shaping the future of CO₂ mitigation technologies within the cement industry. It is through collective efforts that we can develop a deeper appreciation for uncertainty analysis, paving the way for the evolution of more effective and sustainable solutions.

The study was co-written by Till Strunge, Research Associate at the Research Institute for Sustainability – Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ); Phil Renforth, Associate Professor at Heriot-Watt University; and Mijndert Van der Spek, Associate Professor at Heriot-Watt University.

Find the paper here.